Hosted for the first time in 2015 and this year the
fourth, the Istanbul Security Conference
was held on the dates of 08-09 November 2018
in Istanbul under the main theme of “Security of the Future”,
collectively by TASAM National Defence and Security Institute (NDSI) and Deep
Learning Turkey. The Istanbul Security Conference
2018, which became a regional and global brand, provided
wide-ranging speakers and protocol participation in all disciplines from
different countries and regions. All relevant authorities from Turkey was
represented at the conference and all sessions were followed institutionally.
During the conference, the Turkey – Gulf Defense and
Security Forum 2018 titled as “The Future of Security in
the Gulf” (as in previous years, with the cooperation of Qatar Ministry of
Defense, Center for Strategic Studies [QSSC]) and the Turkey – Africa Defense Security and Aerospace
Forum 2018 titled as “Future of Security in Africa, and
Turkey” were held simultaneously as sub-events.
Istanbul Security Conference 2018,
which brings together participants from 40 countries from the USA to China and
from Russia to Iran; has been an important platform for the exchange of views
and ideas about new competitive perspectives of Turkey-based security
architecture in the light of the facts of “”Industry 4.0″ and
“Artificial Intelligence”.
It was stated in the opening speeches that the last years of conventional
security lived and “the security of the future” would be shaped within the
framework of the changing state nature. In the conference, the factors that are
likely to have an impact on all aspects of the security of the future have been
extensively studied. Within the scope of the conference, “Cyber Security”,
“Deep Learning” and “Artificial Intelligence in Future Security” panels were
held. The TASAM Strategic Vision Awards,
which have been made traditional by TASAM for 11 years, have been entrusted to
the successful people and institutions that have strategic vision in a ceremony
held during the conference.
As a result of the conference, the following
determinations and suggestions were made and it was decided to present to the
attention of all relevant authorities and the public:
1. Despite the fact
that 500 days have passed since the beginning of the embargo on the Qatar
State, no concrete data on the reasons for the implementation of the embargo
has yet to be provided. The, “Khashoggi” event, which should be seen as an
opportunity for the administrators to correct their mistakes in the Gulf, and
it has become a subject that has wounded the conscience of the world and has
become completely politicized.
2. Strong Turkey, is
the guarantor of Gulf security. The Western Balkans are also very vulnerable in
terms of security. The conflicts in these regions are carried out in such a way
as to reflect the interests of the great powers and human life is not seen as a
priority in politics and is not considered as a priority.
3. Countries should
establish their own security systems without rely upon imported safety,
otherwise their management may be undermined.
4. No armed force
shall express an absolute value in terms of numbers, but may represent a value
if it fulfills such tasks as “deterrence”, “interference”,
to be imposed on it by the political authorities. Conventional war will
continue to exist. Thoughts that new types of war, such as hybrid warfare that
would be the only method of warfare should be considered.
5. Although
conflicts do not recognize borders, the decreased limits that have an impact on
their spreading are beginning to gain importance again. Globally, more than 60
countries build walls against their neighbors and security is increasingly
regionalized. Smart city works across the globe, should be fictionalized not
only by technology but also by asymmetrically changing security threats.
6. Hybrid warfare;
artificial intelligence, space warfare and cyber-attack should be addressed
from an analytical perspective. In this regard, China has been actively working
to become a world leader until 2025. The United States formed a space command
as “security force element”. China has also come a long way in space
warfare. The aim of the studies in this area is the military satellites in
low-orbit around the world. Non-state actors should be prevented from
developing or obtaining an anti-satellite system.
7. The United States
stated that it would conduct cyber-attacks on the attack in the cyber security
strategy, which was published in 2018, and this situation has taken the issue
of cyber-attacks to a wider dimension. The financial resources spent in cyber
wars across the world have reached $ 8 trillion. It has been reported that the
data of 5 million personnel has been stolen. Until the year 2022, it is
foreseen that the need for cyber security experts worldwide is 1.8 million
people. The effect size of cyber-attacks will be much greater if they are not
trained in the desired quality.
8. In the security
of the future, the defense sector should be structured according to the
security needs of each country. Due to ignoring the law of armed conflict such
as humanitarianism and military generality, many civilians have lost their
lives in the operation areas. In the near future, the human need will continue
to be important in directing the systems of laser weapon systems, autonomous
systems and similar systems that expected to enter the inventory of armies.
9. China, which is a
candidate for US legitimacy which is rapidly deteriorating in the global
village, is seen as a closed box as it has been throughout history and leads to
doubts about the legitimacy it will undertake.
10. It is very difficult
for Africa and China to gain equal partnership, and although this work path has
not been completed yet, it is seen that it is much more equal in its relations
than in Africa – America and Africa – Europe.
11. When the concept of
“soft power” began to be used for the first time in the early 1990s, the
authorities emphasized that the concept of “hard power” was not an effective
tool for achieving foreign policy and national goals, whereas the notion of
soft power would be a new instrument in foreign policy implementations.
However, until now, it has been seen that the concepts of soft power and hard
power are insufficient to reveal the truth, they have been found to be
inadequate to explain foreign policy and they are not realistic. The new
concept of “smart power” must be dwell on.
12. In foreign policy
applications, states are not the sole actors. There is still a system in which
non-governmental actors such as non-governmental organizations, multinational
corporations and even terrorist organizations affect states. The notion of soft
power alone cannot be sufficient in the multi-dimensional plane and, when
necessary, hard power can be adopted as a method. The power components can be
balanced so that the notion of smart power is revealed.
13. In recent years, it
has been determined that China may constitute an important precedent in the use
of smart power. Because it is difficult to separate economic development and
cooperation from political structure, China avoids political impositions when
it offers economic cooperation to states outside the region and the region,
thus creating a global attraction in recent years. Presence in humanitarian
activities in Turkey’s region and its efforts to increase gradually in recent
years, the region provides an important soft power capacity to occur in favor
of Turkey.
14. The power
distribution in the years when the concept of “Soft Power” was introduced is
the bipolar order of the Cold War period, but today it is not a good idea to
talk about the bipolar power distribution. The system perspective should not be
ignored in order to reveal a future perspective with soft power and neither
soft power nor smart power inferences can be revealed by ignoring the system
approach.
15. In recent years,
defense industries have been carrying out robotic breakthroughs and conducting
R&D studies for the concept of robotic war. Especially after the September
11 attacks, there has been a dramatic increase in semi-autonomous unmanned
aerial vehicle technologies. Autonomous weapons systems are the last stage of
this dramatic rise. Besides, there is no codification in international law for
autonomous weapons systems and there are serious gaps in the context of
international human rights, humanitarian law, criminal law and responsibility
during its use and these gaps need to be codified immediately.
16. Hybrid battles cover
all areas of internal and external security, as states develop attacks with
nonlinear methods by taking advantage of the weaknesses in decision-making
structures. Democratic societies are vulnerable to hybrid attacks and threats
due to their fragility. For this reason, in order to cope with hybrid threats
and to be ready for hybrid warfare, it is very important for states to improve
their co-ordination and cooperation through a totalitarian and comprehensive
approach.
17. In 2017, China
initiated a government program called the New Generation Artificial
Intelligence Development Program and formulated its steps in the field of
artificial intelligence in a strategy paper. One of the most striking aspects of
this perspective is that China is aiming for global leadership with the steps
to be taken in the field of artificial intelligence until 2025.
18. With the development
of network technologies, the importance of “cyber security” on the
world agenda has become an increasing issue day by day. Therefore, due to
risk-based approaches, states spend a high level of expenditure. Compliance
agreements are made in order to eliminate violations. The development of
information technologies made out the notion of asymmetric warfare.
19. Funding support for
further progress of artificial intelligence work in Turkey should be increased.
Besides that, the integration of the deep learning system into education and
defense is also of great importance.
20. Security cameras are
key factor in the security of the future, with the contribution of artificial
intelligence and deep learning studies. There are 256 million security cameras
around the world, but they are not smart cameras and cannot highlight the
findings that experts can seek solutions to security problems. Intelligent
cameras with qualitative features; In the observation of the students in
educational institutions, in identifying the malicious people arriving at any
entertainment venue, in the detection and prevention of possible security
problems in a crowded airport, shopping center, bus / train station or city
square, they are used in the identification of provocative and malicious people
in actions and depending on these, security vulnerabilities in cities can be
solved by smart cameras.
21. In the field of law,
artificial intelligence studies are carried out in the world, the use of ethics
and judicial process are emphasized and artificial intelligence can be assumed
instead of a judge in the future. The USA has been working in this field in
recent years.
22. R&D startup
companies in Turkey should be supported in terms of financial resources and
investment funds. It should be considered on public and private sector
adaptation.
23. According to US security
reports, China and Russia are developing weapons systems that can disable US
military satellites. In 2018, US President Donald Trump’s statement that he had
built the Pentagon’s space forces as the sixth force is an important fact in
understanding the future level of security in space. Concordantly, in the near
future, it is foreseen that a covert struggle between the United States and
China.
24. There are satellites
used for military espionage in the context of Low Earth Orbit, which is defined
as LEO (Low Earth Orbit) in the space war. Particularly, the US develops new
weapons systems and war approaches to eliminate the approach of the
“Global Network-Based War Doctrine” in Iraq War, to cut the
information and intelligence and to make the states blind and deaf in war
environments.
25. Although the US does
not have an official definition for space warfare, China has developed a
definition; “a combat technique based on the mutual operation of the two states
in an area called outer space for attack and defense purposes”.
26. In the context of
military espionage, especially through military satellites, the United States
can take high-resolution photos of all parts of the world, have special
communication facilities, and have the capacity to listen and receive. The US
also has long range missiles that can be sent from space to anywhere in the
world from 30 to 60 minutes. All these issues must be followed and evaluated
with great importance.
27. During the Ukraine
Crisis in 2015, Russia included the information warfare in its military defense
strategy document. Another target of Russia, which aims to cut off all
information support of the enemy in war and similar situations, is the orbit of
the US spy satellites.
28. Non-state actors can
buy satellites that can broadcasting television in order to create propaganda,
disinformation and information pollution in space and similar satellites can
also be purchased by terrorist organizations.
29. The United States has
created a reserve mechanism that can restore the satellite system with the B52
aircraft to developed in order to prevent its satellites from being turned
blind and deaf. This is even a clear example of how far the United States has
taken into account the struggle in space and how seriously it takes space
technologies. Turkey, which plans to build a spaceport in the capital Ankara
and this is one of the innovative steps of Turkey.
30. The transfer of 28
billion barrels of oil from the South China Sea every year is a commercial
statistic that need to be emphasized. In addition, the political problems
experienced by the coastal states in the past and now have made the South China
Sea one of the most problematic waters in the world. As a matter of fact, this situation
will bring the issues of South China Sea to the academic agenda in the future
perspective. The problems in the South China Sea can be severely spread all
over Asia.
31. The spread of the
Internet has led to the change extent of terrorism and the emergence of new
concepts. Terrorist organizations have specialized in social media, and this
has created the notion of “new terrorism”. As a result, terrorist
organizations have begun to obtain opportunities to spread the manipulative
knowledge to large masses and to gather supporters from a wider audience. The
acquisition of these amenities by terrorist organizations would require the
security forces to develop their communication and coordination capabilities.
32. In countering
terrorism; gaining knowledge cannot increase the power of foresight. It is
vital that analysis units should be trained and reach a sufficient number in
producing predictions for surprise attacks.
33. There should be some
principles that international organizations must adopt to maintain their
legitimacy in the context of peace and stability; international organizations
should focus on conflict prevention, not on interference. This will prevent the
emergence of wars and reduce human losses. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on
the plans and projects for the prevention of wars.
34. Internationally,
strategic and inclusive partnerships are vital importance. Necessary
coordination should be ensured at local and regional level with security
forces, NGOs and non-state organizations. All these elements have as much role
as the state in peacekeeping.
35. The success of
programs related to peacebuilding is directly related to its sustainability.
For this reason, international organizations should approach sustainable
development programs with maximum care.
36. Motivating to
maintain peace at national level as well as international will reduce the
burden of international organizations in resolving crises. There is a wide
network of responsibilities, including international organizations as well as
political parties, youth organizations and the private sector.
37. Women’s social,
political, business life and more contribution in every field is one of the
most important points that should be emphasized in the reduction of violence,
peace building.
38. Turkey’s activities
towards ensuring security in Somalia is one of the illuminating examples of the
construction of peace. Likewise, Turkey has provided similar support to 8
countries. Turkey ranks second after the US in terms of humanitarian aid to all
over the world, but it is the first in the world in terms of the gross domestic
product rate of financial assistance, which is worthy of any kind of
appreciation.
39. The US Country /
Homeland Security Organization and the 2018 World Economic Forum assesses that
strategic cyber-attacks have the highest destructive power after the nuclear
war and cyber warfare has emphasized that it has a very sensitive position in
the security of the future.
40. New technologies such
as “big data analysis”, “machine learning” and “deep learning” should be
utilized to prevent damage after cyber-attacks and to minimize their losses and
besides that, corporate awareness should be owned by senior management and
cyber-attacks should be based on a technically systematic and holistic
approach.
41. Cyber activities are
inherently anomalous. In addition, with asymmetric effect in cyber activities,
obscurity and continuity sit at the center of the process. If it is considered
within this framework, it is not a war but a struggle and hybrid personnel
group with special expertise for each specialized struggle, flexibility and
maneuverability in planning is extremely essential.
42. Information
Technologies (IT) are designed to adapt to very fast changes and are renewed
every 3-4 years to meet the needs. On the other hand, Automation Technologies
(AT), are designed to operate for 25-30 years without any intervention. In this
time, with the digitalization IT systems and AT systems have started to integrate
and this integration is a candidate for new vulnerabilities in the security of
the future.
43. Factories with power
plants is connected to the internet so that it can be managed remotely and the
data can be collected and measured and this situation raises the danger of
cyber-attack. According to statistics, there are 516 cyber-attack attempts per
day in Turkey and according to research, recognition of a cyber-attack takes
average 5 months in the worldwide and day by day, it is become more difficult for
institutions to resist and respond agile in the face of increasing
cyber-attacks in terms of diversity and violence.
44. With cyber security
activities, it is very important to make a quick and accurate response before
the possible attacks occur. Identification and administration of threats and
vulnerabilities, tracking of the threats towards security for the detection of
attacks, an active strategic governance to allow an active process of
intervention for the cyber incidents following an attack, transformation and
achieving most updated security standards by creating an active cyber security
framework for defense of cyber incidents are only possible with an end-to-end
cyber security framework.
45. In the field of cyber
security, a paradigm shift from the “control-based approach in traditional
administrative systems” towards an approach in which technical
vulnerabilities are continuously scanned, identified and eliminated with the
current threats considered is evident.
46. Recently, cyber
security operation centers, cyber threat simulations, red team applications,
cyber abuse investigation and cyber risk insurance concepts are seen as cyber
security trends.
47. It is the duty of a
state to ensure a future of uninterrupted security and perpetual prosperity for
its people. Prosperity and security, two things that can only be improved in a
financially systematical economy through proper education, not only is
threatened by matters involving arms, but also by matters where the national
currency of the target nation is put to test by foreign financial manipulation,
as seen in the examples of Qatar and turkey.
48. As a precaution
against this attack, the target countries have the means to minimize financial
risks through long-term macroeconomic analysis, and the main instrument is to
provide monetary security. Indeed, basic development indicators are, low
inflation, acceptable “convertible” currency, high-demand government
bonds, demographic stable balanced population growth and digital weighted
technological development. Today, technological development is building a
capitalist system without capitals with digital inputs.
49. In terms of political
economy perception, economic security and country security come together in the
same macro balances. The developments in our period include the signs of the
upcoming new economic orders because of depreciation of TL by external factors,
trade wars between the US and China, the reaction of the EU to the Italian
national budget, Brexit, Iran sanctions etc. The quest for global economic
leader countries is emerging and it is necessary to initiate processes that
include the R & D and the real sector in the regional and national plan,
including the guarantees that will attract international investors in the fiscal
discipline to restrain inflation for this new order.
09 November 2018, Istanbul